[Foam-rangers] Fwd: Dixie Cup Cheating -- (Once again, with pictures!)

[Bev D. Blackwood II]

Brilliant! :-)

On Oct 21, 2013, at 10:23 PM, Scott DeWalt wrote:

> 
> I've discovered some shenanigans.  And I have the proof!
> 
> Look at this graph:
> 
> <first.png>
> 
> 
> This is a graph shows, along the bottom, the top 20 clubs by total entry count.  The blue bar represents the visual percentage of how many of their beers went to the medal table for consideration.   Note that this does NOT indicate how many actually won medals nor can it be viewed as an indication of the quality of entries as a whole.  
> 
> Now this can be problematic.  Imagine I'm club SCOTT IS AWESOME and I sent in 1 beer.  If that beer made it to the medal round, I'd show as 100%.  Now imagine I'm in the same incredibly named club and sent in 100 beers but only 1 made it to the medal round.   I'd show up above as 1%.
> 
> This is the problem with averages so don't get all excited thinking one club is better because their graph is better.  What you're  interested in is the distribution of the numbers which falls within a deviation.  (Trust me, I'm a poorfessional.)  
> 
> Drat!  No cheating here!  Maybe we should dig more!
> 
> Now look at this graph!  Ah ha!  The Smoking Gun!
> 
> <second.png>
> 
> This is a graph, by club, of the number of entries that won a medal against the total entries for the club.  You can see nefarious  stuff here!  On second thought, maybe not.
> 
> Again, the distribution looks predictable, in fact, you could make a function that would fairly predict a likely result for the SCOTT IS AWESOME CLUB.  Back to the drawing board.
> 
> But, here's the proof of cheaters!  
> 
> BEHOLD!!!
> 
> <third.png>
> 
> Now this graph says it all!  This is the percentage of medals awarded, by club, to beers that made the medal round.  You can CLEARLY see the trend is completely shattered by a whopping 100% rate for the Texas Carboys.  This means that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEIR BEERS THAT MADE THE MEDAL TABLE TOOK HOME A MEDAL!
> 
> Now that's clearly impossible without cheating.  They must have a double agent!
> 
> So, there you have it.  NTHB is correct, there is cheating at the Dixie Cub -- by the Texas Carboys!  Off with their foam heads!
> 
> Scott "Numbers Lie, So Do I" DeWalt
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> P.S.  Brilliant bloody-good show, Texas Carboys!  You didn't enter in big numbers but all four beers pushed to the medal table took home bling.
> 
> P.P.S. And Mashtronauts, great job at getting nearly 50% of all your entries onto a medal table!  Outstanding!
> 
> P.P.P.S.  Foam Rangers, we're keeping the Dixie Cup.  After all, in the end it is about numbers and the graph of the final tally would make everyone else cry.  Excellent job!
> 
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